Our Natural Gas supply – The numbers game.

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It does not take long to realize that there are more varied predictions on how much Natural Gas this country has, than there are flavors in your local store’s Ice Cream freezer. And, unlike that Ice-Cream, many of the natural gas numbers leave a sour taste in the mouth. Which numbers are correct, which are biased towards an agenda, and which are just plain old pie in the sky – (a-la-mode)?

Now, I am not a geologist so I cannot offer my own independent conclusions, although that does not seem to inhibit many others. What I can do, is to look at those numbers, compare them, and attempt to derive some sensible compromises based on reality, technical awareness, and just plain common sense.

First, lets look at the numbers reported by what are considered by most to be credible and reliable sources. Unlike some, these sources also have facts and figures to back up their analysis.

The United States Geological Survey in their latest report ( Dec 2008) says we have 742 Trillion cubic feet of proved conventional reserves, 378 Trillion Cubic feet of Unproved reserves, and  743 Trillion Cubic Feet of technically recoverable Unconventional resources (Shale and tight gas).
Ref: http://certmapper.cr.usgs.gov/data/noga00/natl/tabular/2008/summary_08.pdf

The Energy Information Administration in Jan 2007 puts US total recoverable conventional reserves at 211 proved  and 373 unproved,  and technically recoverable unconventional reserves (Proved and unproved)  at 1,366 Trillion Cubic feet.  Ref: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/oil_gas.pdf

Already we have some serious disagreement, although both sources agree on Unproved Conventional gas. The difference in the unconventional reserves likely centers around the definition of  “Technically recoverable”.

The big difference comes in the proven reserves. For some reason the EIA comes up with a very low figure for this, (I did the math 3 times).  Yet, both sources add up to roughly the same total of 1,800 Trillion Cubic feet of reserves.

Now, lets turn to the Natural Gas Association. First of all, they agree with me that there is a wide disparity in these assessments. I feel so good!  They base their own assessment on EIA data as above with total proven reserves at 211 Trillion Cubic Feet, and a total of  1,536 Trillion Cubic feet of unproven reserves.

http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/resources.asp (Very useful page!).

OK. The above references, ignoring what they consider to be technically recoverable, all predicate that we have a total of about 1,800 Trillion Cubic Feet of Natural gas reserves in the  US. Now, I could fill a few pages with references to other reports that “grow” this estimate in leaps and bounds. It all culminated for me in a purported report from JP Morgan Chase that our reserves are NOW 8,000 Trillion Cubic Feet. I have not been able to find the actual report, only references to it. It does strike me that  many of these inflated numbers are coming, not from geologists, or even energy companies, but  from institutions with a financial stake in the trading of Natural Gas. Hmmmm.

I would like to point out also, that there is wide disparity on how much of that gas can be recovered. Certainly not all. According to the Natural Gas association, about 10% of the unconventional. Many sources put it closer to 30 percent. So far shale gas production in the Barnett shale has not lived up to expectations, and they are recovering about maybe 35% of what they thought they would. http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/lessons-from-the-barnett-shale-suggest-caution-in-other-shale-plays/

One final issue I would like to address. A common talking point is how many years this supply of Natural Gas will last us. First some baseline numbers. We used 22 Trillion Cubic Feet of Natural Gas last year. That is 1.8 TCF per month, or 60 Billion Cubic Feet a Day!  In the same month we will use about 11 Billion gallons of gasoline,  5 billion gallons of diesel fuel and 342 Million-Megawatt hours of electricity.

Well, if we change nothing, and manage to recover all 1,800 TCF of our natural gas, we are good for 81 years. If we manage to only recover  35%, then about  28 years worth.

But, what if we try to replace our gasoline use with natural gas? That 11 Billion Gallons of gasoline a month is about 1,364 trillion BTUs. Equivalent to 1.3 trillion Cubic Feet of Natural Gas, increasing our consumption by 72%.  If we add in the diesel, that would equal  .65 Trillion more Cubic feet. So replacing our transportation fuel would more than double our consumption of Natural Gas, and reduce our remaining supply to 14 or 40 years, depending on your optimism level. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5615.

Let’s replace electricity from coal instead. Coal supplies 48% of our electricity, or  164 Million-Megawatt hours a month. Each one has 3.414 BTUs of energy. So, that is 560 Trillion BTU’s. (I checked the decimal point). It would require .6 trillion Cubic Feet of Natural gas to replace our coal. About a 33% increase, assuming the power plant  efficiency is the same – it is close. That would make our natural gas last anywhere from 19 years to 54 years, again depending on how much natural gas we can actually recover.

Finally, I would recommend reading this report on The Oil Drum. It addresses some of these points, and also makes the point that the whole natural gas reserves picture is steeped in unfounded numbers and hype.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5676

As for me, I think I will have some Ice Cream.
 

Comments

[www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1527831341]

Mike wanted to make a couple comments. First I agree that the debate about how much energy we have access to is very confusing partly because there are genuine knowledge gaps about many natural resources we do or do not have. There are also people and corporations with genuine agendas of their own pro and con. The other unavoidable fact is that oil companies and the like have a financial incentive to squash competition where ever they find it. The last thing oil companies want is someone to develop a limitless source of cheap energy because they'd be out of business in a heartbeat.

That being said, you (meaning everyone) have to be careful compare the amount of energy that is available. The problem with coal is it's a solid so you can't run a car on it. Before you can use coal to run a car you have to convert it to either a gas or (preferable) a liquid. Natural gas is, well, a gas. You can run a car off gas but you'd have to either compress it or have a very large gas tank to hold it.

What I'm saying is this... "any comparison between natural gas, petroleum, coal or any other form of energy requires that you include any energy needed to convert the resource into a usable form and whatever transport cost (expressed in energy spent) to get it to where it is needed".

For example, coal might be readily available but it has to be shipped halfway across the country in a rail car and then converted to a liquid in a fractionation process before you can run a car on it. Just looking at the total amount of coal sitting in the ground isn't the whole story.

[plumbing supplies]

I definitely agree. Natural gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel. Because the combustion process for natural gas is almost perfect, very few byproducts are emitted into the atmosphere as pollutants. Also, with the introduction of new technologies, nitrogen oxide, a pollutant targeted by the Clean Air Act can be significantly reduced. The blue flame seen when natural gas is ignited is a sign of perfect combustion.
Because natural gas burns cleanly, it doesn't leave behind any unpleasant soot, ash, or odors.

[Plumbing Supplies]

Even though gas is cleaner than gasoline, I hope our energy sources investigators will be able to find a different source than organic ones. This means that some years from now we will have new energy sources. It sounds like sicence fiction but we did not have internet neither cell phones 50 years ago and people dreamed about a device and a system that kept them always connected to friends, family and office. Now we have them, and we have got used to it. If you think about just this couple of inventions and how they changed the world you will have faith that some time in the future a new energy source will be discovered or invented.

[plumbing fittings]

There are a number of technical and vocational schools which offer such courses. In the old days, you were just required to apprentice under a trained plumber and gain hands on experience, but today there is a need to be educated in the intricacies of the trade. This is a desired qualification if you wish to be employed in a reputable organization. The courses will enable you to seek and obtain the best possible jobs in the trade. There is a growing demand for specialists.

[Pete]

Gas supply
You’ve just walked over the threshold of your new home. What should you know? What do you HAVE to know about the gas supply?

Do you and all your household members know how to shut off the gas supply? You never know when an emergency might occur.

Many city houses have a mains gas supply sourced from gas pipes running under the street. Individual pipes lead to the houses and there’ll be a meter box on the outside wall that measures the amount of gas used. Usually at this point, too, there is a valve for turning off the supply to the house. Make sure you find this valve early on to make sure you can turn the gas off if and when necessary. Gas can be lethal — either through breathing it in or in starting an explosive fire.

Gas appliances need servicing. To be safe, have them serviced annually by a registered gasfitter.

Bottled gas
Some household systems are run from bottled gas. Make sure you know how to turn the bottles on and off (usually a valve on the top of the bottle). The bottle must be kept upright. There’ll also be a threaded connection where a pipe feeds the gas from the bottle to the appliance or system. A bulbous metal regulator will be on the pipe near the connection.

Refilling a gas bottle
Always turn the bottle valve to the OFF position before attempting to disconnect the bottle from the pipe. The thread on the pipe is usually a left-hand thread, so turn it clockwise to undo it and anticlockwise to put it on again. Connect it tightly to make sure the valve inside will open.

Gas hot water
Some gas hot water supplies originate from a califont, which heats a storage tank of water, but increasingly gas hot water supplies are in-line or continuous flow. In other words, the water is heated by a gas flame (in a special box) as it passes through the pipe to the tap. In this system, hot water is instant and heated only when needed.

Look for a temperature regulator panel, usually on the wall inside the house somewhere near where the gas heater (on the outside wall) is located. This will allow you to turn the system on or off and set a desired temperature. There’ll also probably be an automatic cut-off switch at this point.

If you find you have no heat in the hot water tap, it could be that a power cut has flipped the automatic switch. Reset the ON/OFF switch and the temperature on the panel (usually inside the house) — and let’s hope another power cut doesn’t occur while you’re lathered up in the shower.

[plumbing]

Natural gas is the right fuel for so many reasons. It can do more than heat your home. It can be used for water heating, clothes drying, cooking, and mood-setting fireplaces.

[renewable sources]

You have good points. The combustion process of natural gas is almost perfect making it the cleanest burning fossil fuel. There are also very few byproduct pollutants that is emitted into the air. Because natural gas burns cleanly, it doesn't leave behind any unpleasant soot, ash, or odors.

[plumbing]

In our generation today, we really need gas in order to us to live. It is basically use in cooking and some in cars. Today, we expect more oil price hike to come because of some problems happen in some countries. And we need to pray for the better of our oil industry.

[plumbing supplies]

Natural gas is supplied to homes where it is used for such purposes as cooking in natural gas-powered ranges and ovens. Also it can be used as the major feedstock for the production of ammonia.

[gas thermocouples]

Natural gas is often informally referred to as simply gas, especially when compared to other energy sources such as oil or coal.
Before natural gas can be used as a fuel, it must undergo processing to remove almost all materials other than methane. The by-products of that processing include ethane, propane, butanes, pentanes, and higher molecular weight hydrocarbons, elemental sulfur, carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sometimes helium and nitrogen.

[BGE]

Yeah natural gas naturally helps the environment and I just read a blog that France ban the fracking of natural gas. Why is that?

[bas]

Thank you for a very good post. Natural gas is probably the best fuel available on the planet at the moment. Its clean there is very little pollution from its use. In the United Kingdom we have just discovered enough Shale gas to last us for a very long time. Let us hope that future governments don’t waste it like they did with the North Sea gas.

[Isiah]

What oil companies? What oil marojs? Is it that in a country of 140million people there are so few intelligent people? or that there are so few who bother to look up the facts and analyse the situation intelligently?Lets take a look one by one at the 'oil marojs' whose operations lead to gas flaring shall we:-1 - SPDC (Operator of the NNPC/Shell/Elf/Agip joint venture generally referred to as Shell)SPDC is 70% own by NNPC (the investment vehicle of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the Oil Industry) i.e. SPDC is 70% own by the Federal Republic of Nigeria. 20-25% owned by Royal Dutch Shell.2 - MPN (Operator of the NNPC/ExxonMobil joint venture, generally referred to as Mobil)Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited is 70% owned by NNPC i.e. 70% owned by the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and 30% owned by ExxonMobil.3 - Chevron Nigeria Ltd (Operator of the Chevron/NNPC joint venture generally referred to as Chevron)Chevron Nigeria Ltd is 70% owned by the federal republic of Nigeria and 30% owned by ChevronTexaco international.4 - SNEPCO (Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company)100% owned by Royal Dutch Shell, Operates Deep offshore fields like EA and Bonga which is hundreds of miles of the coast of Nigeria in deep offshore Atlantic waters.Anyway, I'm sure by now you get the point i'm trying to make. The deep offshore gas is hardly flared and where they are flared they are less harmful because they are so far away from anywhere and the technology used in deep offshore drilling allows for easy solutions to flaring.The problem we have is with onshore, creeks and shallow water flaring, these are kinds of flares that produce the lights you see in the Delta and harm people, these flares are almost entirely the responsibility of the Federal Republic of Nigeria because Nigeria is the majority stake holder in the businesses that flare these gases.Enough with the left wing drivel, look at the facts, the oil companies are not to blame, the federal govt will play dumb always and play the innocent victim of Multinationals pressure. The solution to gas flaring is simple, here are the possibilities:1 - FG can give give directive to end all oil operations that flare gas in the Delta, i.e. they can ask themselves (NNPC) to stop operation, but they wont do this cos they will be losing money.2 - FG can come up with 70% of the cash needed to convert to new technology and bury rather than flare the gas, but of course they wont cos it will cost them too much, why should they use money they can embezzle to save lives in the Delta, rubbish.3 - FG can finally f*%$%*g realise that government has no business in business, deregulate the downstream oil industry, phase out the subsidy, allow the market to do the trick. What trick I hear you ask? Well the trick is: if all of the above is done, someone will take a punt on the flared gas, someone will invest in gathering that flared gas and sell it to power generating stations, industries, etc, someone will smell a profit and monetise that flared gas and we all will live happily ever after.I love Nigeria but I'm afraid the oil marojs are not blame for this one, the oil marojs after all are running businesses not a charity!A.J.

[Lakon]

$32 billion of gas is not fareld yearly. Let's put it in perspective. Nigeria as a whole earned $15 billion from Oil last year. It earned $1 billion from gas last year. The assumption is that Nigeria flares between 50 - 70% of gas produced. That means that it is flaring between $2 to $3 billion in gas a year (the discrepancy is due to the JV arrangements of 70% to NNPC.) So what I think the analyst from Houston did was to say that the entire total flaring done is equal to the annual flaring done. I mean it's bad enough as it is, but let's not make it worse than it actually is :D

[Vijay]

with my front loader fill it right up. It's not like a top load so you don't have to worry about the agoiattr getting in the way or whatever if there are too many clothes. I guess I would saw about 1 and 1/2 rectangular laundry baskets do just fine in mine.I wouldn't cramp and stuff it all in, but fill it up so that there is a little room and wash away. Hmm about 10-12 pair of jeans, 15 towels, etc.

[Ramu]

If you have Sunoco, Hess, Valero, stations in NJ you will be buynig gasoline from American fuel sources. You car should use no less than 91 octane fuel. Larger Sunoco stations have 91 octane fuel.The last time I drove through your state I noticed many Hess stations.Your on-board computer regulates the fuel air mixture. The anti-knock sensor reduces ignition timing when the octane rating is too low which otherwise causes pre-ignition. The more the anti-knock sensor reduces ignition timing you will loose fuel economy and horsepower.The higher the fuel octane the cooler and slower the fuel air mixture burns. High compression engines deserve higher octane fuel.

[Rahul]

Well I assume you have the 3.5 or 3.7 eingne your supposed to use Premium unleaded I would recommend name brand the cheapest price places generally have watered down gas. I run premium in my 04 g35 it runs great tried mid grade it was sluggish and stalled.

[Bagung]

To date, Cap and Trade in Europe has been a disaster. Significant costs with ltlite or no return and emissions that are higher today then at the time of their becoming a signatory to the Kyoto treaty. One would think the European experience would give pause to our elected representatives to think their actions through. The Waxman bill introduced today, April 2, should scare the life out of every American. "Socialism is a great form of government until it runs out of money." Margaret T. had it right. There are many in our Congress that don't. The European experience leads one to believe that Mother Nature has more to do with our climate than man. We can't control her, but then again there are people from California who think they can. Hopefully reason and common sense will prevail.